India’s average annual per capita protein consumption, of which dairy forms a significant part, is projected to more than triple from 9.5 kg in 2025 to 30 kg by 2070, pushing protein-related emissions to more than seven times the estimated climate-safe threshold, according to a report released on Tuesday by Asia Research and Engagement (ARE), in partnership with the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI).
The report indicates that the increase in protein consumption will be driven by population growth, rising incomes, urbanisation, public nutrition programmes and shifting dietary preferences.
However, despite rising protein consumption, India remains protein-insecure and faces dietary inequality, the report added.
The report’s business-as-usual (BAU) model projects that India’s annual protein-related emissions could reach 1.92 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gt CO2e) by 2070, more than seven times the estimated climate-safe threshold of 0.25 Gt CO2e.
“Largely, two things will need to happen. One is significant improvement on the production side, and the second is on the demand side,” said Rituj Sahu, Director of Protein Transition and Sustainable Food Systems (India) at ARE.
The report’s combined approach, involving gains in production efficiency across dairy, poultry and seafood systems alongside diversification of the protein base, could reduce annual emissions to 0.30 Gt CO2e by 2070. While still above the climate-safe threshold, this would represent a substantial reduction in the gap.
India’s protein trajectory is expected to differ from that of Western markets, as its demand does not largely rely on animal meat.
“We have this deep legacy of plant-based foods, especially legumes and pulses,” Sahu said.
According to the report, traditional sources such as dairy and pulses are projected to remain the main sources of protein through 2070, while eggs, poultry and seafood are likely to grow from smaller bases. Red meat is expected to remain a relatively small component of the country’s protein basket.
“Our protein basket right now is not meat-heavy. It has many other components from which we get our protein. So, we need to double down on them and think about how we can derive protein from them better and include them better in our diets,” Sahu said.
The country imports nearly 90 per cent of its processed plant-protein isolates, according to the report, highlighting both a supply-chain vulnerability and an opportunity to expand domestic processing and value addition.
Talking about the cost of the transition, Sahu said producers, retailers, consumers, governments and civil society organisations would have to share the costs.
