Veteran diplomats told Business Standard’s monthly Blueprint Roundtable webinar on Wednesday that the Mecca pact was fuelled by concerns such as the United States’ (US) inability to fulfil its role as a main security provider in West Asia, during its ongoing war with Iran and amid power projections by Israel.
“The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have seen that the US has not lived up to its role as a regional security guarantor,” Talmiz Ahmad, India’s former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, said.
Before the Mecca pact took shape, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan were already engaged in a political dialogue, styling themselves as the R4 Group (the regional four) – a consultative diplomatic and security mechanism.
“That quartet has not gone away. It is still very much in place,” Ahmad said, adding that all may not join the Mecca pact, but they are still part of a geopolitical quadrilateral.
“Once you have a ceasefire and this quartet becomes a significant presence in the region politically, Iran could join,” he said of the ongoing war.
According to media reports, Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmaiel Baghaei said that Iran received offers for talks on collective security, but so far there has been no offer of joining the defence pact. This agreement has also been welcomed by US President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
“This is an experiment. We do not know which way things will go,” Ahmad said. “We should not be judgemental within two months.”
On the pact acting as deterrence, he said, “A balance of power works until it doesn’t.”
Sharat Sabharwal, India’s former high commissioner to Pakistan, said the treaty’s most significant part – “an attack on one is an attack on all” – is vague. “This is the most publicised clause, and yet the most nebulous.”
In a fast escalating situation, he said, the line between a defensive and an offensive role is thin. By signing, “Pakistan has opened itself to getting sucked into the quagmires of the region.”
While Pakistan has some linkages to West Asia, the country is not geographically located in that region.
Earlier this week, the media reported that the Saudi military intercepted multiple ballistic missiles and drones launched toward Riyadh and other cities in Saudi Arabia by the Houthi. The King Khalid International Airport in the capital was struck on October 10, killing 13 people and injuring 308 others.
This was the first real test of the pact. On October 5, the three countries agreed to “immediately” implement their collective defence commitments and to take measures for the “rapid deployment” of agreed military forces and capabilities to the kingdom.
The Pakistani army has acknowledged sending its forces to Saudi Arabia. Turkiye, whose parliament has not yet approved the agreement, has refused to send its soldiers.
Sabharwal said the Turkish or Saudi troops’ role in any potential future India-Pakistan conflict is “a far-fetched scenario”. Turkiye is a defence supplier to Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia could at most finance weapons purchases.
“We tend to see things, at times, too much through the prism of Pakistan,” Sabharwal said. “We will have to keep a close watch over things to make sure that there is no adventurism against us (India).”
Other experts told the Blueprint magazine earlier that India is not a target of the pact.
