By Pratik Parija and Preeti Soni
India’s weaker-than-normal monsoon is threatening key crops, heightening the risk that food prices will rise in the world’s most populous nation.
The June-September rainy season is forecast to deliver below-normal precipitation through its final month, worsening the outlook for harvest after a 14 per cent rainfall deficit in the first three months. The shortfall is affecting soil moisture and may deepen the stress on staples including rice, sugar cane and soybeans.
Monsoon precipitation is expected to be less than 91 per cent of the long-term average of 167.9 millimeters (6.6102 inches) in September this year, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department. Most of the country is expected to get deficit rainfall, except some parts in east, northeast and central India, he said at a briefing in New Delhi on Monday.
“Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during September is most likely to be below normal,” Mohapatra said.
The uneven distribution of rainfall is emerging as a bigger concern in the country. Deficits persist in key rice-growing areas in the east and north, while sugar-cane belts in the west and south and soybeans regions are also facing moisture stress. Continued dryness in September could hurt yields and tighten supplies of key food commodities.
Planting of rice and corn was trailing last year’s pace as of Aug. 28, according to farm ministry data released Monday. Oilseed and sugar-cane sowing was also slightly lower. Planting typically begins in late May and peaks in July.
Weak rainfall may cut India’s rice production by about 4.5 per cent this year and corn output by 9.3 per cent, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
Food prices are already showing signs of accelerating, with costs rising 5.5 per cent in July versus a year earlier. That’s the highest level this year and outstrips the growth across broader consumer prices. In a sign of growing strain, the government has allowed duty-free sugar imports for the first time in almost a decade to ease a domestic shortage.
Adequate soil moisture in September is crucial for developing crops, as well as for winter planting. The prolonged shortfall could therefore hurt both the current harvest and the next crop cycle, adding to the pressure on food prices.
India saw its driest June in 12 years at the start of the monsoon period. Precipitation picked up in July before weakening again in August as a strengthening El Niño brought drier conditions across parts of South and Southeast Asia. August rainfall was 16.3 per cent below normal.
