Judging from this, the alliance has ended even before it could be forged. If the result of the municipal elections in Punjab held a few months ago is any guide, this means the BJP and the SAD will compete to be number three and four in most constituencies. Here’s why.
The Moga declaration of 1996, which marked the unconditional alliance between the BJP and the SAD, underlined “Punjabiyat” rather than religious or caste identities — Sikh, Hindu, Muslim or Dalit — as the basis of the tieup. The partnership went on to become one of Punjab’s most significant political alliances, with both parties working together for more than two decades. The parties came together against a common rival: The Congress. However, when the SAD walked out of the alliance in September 2020 on the issue of farm laws, both sides remembered the bad times, not the good ones. Together, they were a winning team even when they didn’t agree with each other — which had been often the case. But separately, they lost every election.
There is a strong opinion within the BJP in Punjab that the party must now stand on its own two feet and dump the badly compromised SAD baggage. To buttress this, it advocates a line that could be construed as overcompensation in its outreach to the Sikhs. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his recent public address, listed the government’s initiatives for the Sikh community: Bringing back Shri Guru Granth Sahib swaroops from Afghanistan, enshrining the 300-year-old sacred footwear (Jore Sahib) of Guru Gobind Singh and Mata Sahib Kaur at Takhat Sri Patna Sahib, the Hemkund Sahib ropeway, clearing foreign contribution (under the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act) for the Golden Temple, and establishing December 26 as Veer Bal Diwas to honour the bravery and martyrdom of the Chaar Sahibzaade. But there is also political signalling: Two candidates of Waris Punjab De won the 2024 Lok Sabha election from Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot. Both are open and unapologetic in their support for Khalistan. Now Waris Punjab De has announced at least five candidates for the Assembly elections, including many who are in prison. Candidates from the Ajnala, Moga, Kapurthala, Kot Kapura, Bassi Pathana and Gill constituencies will advocate the secessionist cause unimpeded by the Indian state. Voters are absorbing and processing this.
The more important issue is what this does to the SAD. For long considered moderates, this significantly weakens the party, leaving the space free for militant Akalis. Militancy in Punjab is not in your face — but it still lurks, just below the surface.
The BJP believes the Hindu populace is with the party. But the Punjabi Hindu is also a Sikh; and the rural Punjabi Sikh is also a Hindu. Besides, Punjabi Hindus are Arya Samaji, not sanatani. For them the temple is as significant as the Gurdwara, even interchangeable. Ritualism is nominal. The evidence? In 2022, despite a Ram Temple wave (its construction had begun), it was the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) that swept the Hindu vote, winning 15 of the 22 Hindu-stronghold Assembly seats. It was not the BJP, which won just two of these seats. (The Congress won five). AAP continues to consolidate on this gain, building on Bhajan Sandhyas, fully funded Hindu pilgrimages, and the renovation of a Kali temple in Patiala. Party leader Arvind Kejriwal said: “To date, no party or government has done as much work for Sanatan Dharma as the AAP government in Punjab.”
The Congress and AAP emigres in the BJP, thought to add to the party’s base and provide intelligence, are not baggage-less: They’ve imported their factions and rivalries to their new party and created new ones, as the resignation of BJP leaders in Sangrur showed recently when they were replaced apparently on the advice of AAP exports to the BJP.
Conditions of extreme fluidity hang over Punjab as the weather cools but election fever hots up. Climate change has a whole new meaning for the state.
