Conditions are favourable for the onset of the northeast monsoon rains over the southern peninsula in the next two-three days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.
In its daily forecast, the IMD also said the southwest monsoon continues to withdraw from remaining parts of the country.
It further said that due to the northeast monsoon’s arrival, a prolonged wet spell is likely over the southern peninsula during the subsequent five-six days.
“Isolated heavy rainfall is expected over Kerala and Mahe, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, and coastal Andhra Pradesh during 15-“18 October,” said the IMD.
“North interior Karnataka is likely to receive isolated heavy rainfall on October 17 and 18, while Rayalaseema may experience similar conditions on October 15 and 16,” the weather department added.
There are two notable types of monsoon in India. First is the southwest monsoon, which occurs from June to September. It hits Kerala on the southwestern coast around June, and then proceeds across the country.
The southwest monsoon is the primary monsoon affecting India. It not only brings respite from the heat but also contributes to the country’s ecosystem and economy, especially the growing of kharif crops.
The second type is the northeast monsoon, also known as the retreating monsoon, which occurs from October to December and affects peninsular India. It is not as intense as the southwest monsoon but is crucial for the growth of rabi crops.
This year’s southwest monsoon ended with 759.4 mm of rain, 12.6 per cent below the 868.6 mm normal, according to the IMD.
One of the key reasons behind the rainfall deficit has been the prevailing El Nino conditions over the tropical Pacific which emerged in June and have been gaining strength since.
El Nino is one of the three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO),” a climate phenomenon characterised by changes in sea temperatures along the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, accompanied by fluctuations in the atmosphere overhead.
While El Nino, which leads to less monsoon rainfall in India, is known to have a warming effect over the planet, its opposite phase, La Nina, usually results in a cooling effect. ENSO also has a neutral phase.
Global weather agencies like the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have predicted that this year’s El Nino event is likely to peak in December 2026, and could become the strongest since observations began in 1950.
Moreover, the El Nino conditions are expected to persist through February 2027.
