Many Indians, among those who participated in a new Munich Security Conference (MSC) survey of the so-called middle powers, said the government is “too accommodating” of China and the United States (US). But a relative majority of respondents expressed optimism about the country’s ability to defend its interests in the world in the next five years.
The survey was released ahead of the MSC’s “leaders meeting” in New Delhi over October 4-5 when middle powers were promoted as the “third path” in the international order. The meeting was a first major event of the MSC in India after years.
At a time of global uncertainty, India’s growing relations with the European Union have led to a free-trade agreement that is expected to be formally signed in the coming months.
In July, French market research company Ipsos conducted the MSC survey among middle powers in the G20 grouping – Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, India, Italy, Indonesia, Japan, South Africa, Türkiye and the United Kingdom. From each country, on average, 1,000 adult, internet-using participants were selected, based on their educational qualification, among other criteria, for a “representative sample”. For India, the age range was 18 to 54.
When the survey asked respondents if their respective government’s approach towards the US government was “too confrontational, too accommodating, or about right”, 41 per cent in India said it was “too accommodating”; 27 per cent said “too confrontational”; 21 per cent said “about right”; and 11 per cent said they “don’t know”.
In Germany, which is home to the MSC since 1963, the survey found 58 per cent saying the government was “too accommodating” of US President Donald Trump’s administration. India was seventh on the list where participants seemed upset with their country’s handling of US ties. Italy, the UK, Japan, Canada and France were placed before India.
Türkiye, South Africa, Indonesia and Brazil came after. Brazil was the only country where more people found their government’s US approach more confrontational than accommodating.
To a similar question about China, 34 per cent of the Indian respondents said the government’s approach towards the Chinese government was “too accommodating”; 28 per cent said “about right”; 25 per sent said “too confrontational”; and 14 per cent didn’t know. In South Africa, 37 per cent said their government was “too accommodating” but 42 per cent said it was “about right”. The latter is same as many others surveyed. In Japan, 32 per cent said the government’s current China approach was “too confrontational”.
In Europe, a relative majority said their respective country lost global influence over the past year. Among the “global south” countries surveyed, as well as in Canada, more respondents believed their country gained influence than lost it over the same period, according to the survey. In India, it was 65 per cent. Surveyed people in the developing world expressed greater optimism than in the West about their country’s ability to defend its interests in the coming years. In India, 30 per cent of the respondents were “very optimistic”, 38 per cent “somewhat optimistic” and 19 per cent “neither optimistic nor pessimistic”. In Germany and Japan, they were particularly pessimistic.
Sophie Eisentraut, the survey’s overseeing author and head of research at MSC, told Business Standard that while there’s no agreed-upon definition of the geopolitical term, a middle power influences global issues, and the description covers a big range, from the Netherlands to India.
