The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty are poised to record a double-digit per centage loss for the first nine months of a calendar year for the first time in 15 years, data shows.
At 72,700 levels, the
Sensex quoted with a loss of 14.7 per cent for the first nine months of the calendar year 2026 (9MCY26). Meanwhile, the
Nifty at 22,700 held a 13.1 per cent loss in the same period. Both indices will also register their biggest per centage fall in the same comparable period.
Analysts attributed sustained selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), geopolitical worries, high crude oil prices and rising bond yields as some of the key factors for the market fall.
READ MORE Meanwhile, in the broader market, the
Nifty Midcap 100 held a marginal 1.4 per cent loss, while the
Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 9 per cent in 9MCY26, shows stock data.
Given this background, here’s what the 15-year history shows happened after a 9-month loss to the Sensex and the Nifty. An analysis of the historical data shows that the 2026 fall is the fifth occasion wherein the Sensex and Nifty will close with losses for the first nine months of a calendar year (CY). Off the past four instances, the benchmark indices staged a recovery and closed the calendar years with net gains on three occasions.
The sharpest recovery was seen in the 2020, when the Sensex and the Nifty despite a 7.7 per cent and 7.6 per cent 9MCY loss, rebounded and ended the CY with a gain of 15.8 per cent and 14.9 per cent, respectively.
Only once, in the last 15 years, i.e., in 2015, did the Sensex and the Nifty after a nine-month fall, go on to sign-off the year with a CY loss.
In the current market setup, Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities believes that the short-term trend for Sensex and the Nifty remains weak.
ALSO READ | Nifty 50 set to log worst September in 8 years as market sell-off deepens The analyst sees near support for the Sensex and the Nifty at 72,200/ 22,600 levels, and resistance around 73,000-73,500/ 22,850-23,000 levels.
Broader indices: Nifty Midcap, Smallcap paint a mixed picture
Over the last 15 years, this is the sixth occasion that the Nifty Midcap 100 will settle with a loss in 9MCY. History shows that the Midcap index has successfully erased minor losses to finish with gains in the past and trimmed losses in case of a steeper fall in the remainder of the year. The Midcap index staged its best-ever year-end recovery in 2013, as the index recouped from a 17.7 per cent loss in the first nine months to finish 5 per cent lower on a CY basis. Meanwhile, the Nifty Smallcap 100 after a positive 9-month has managed to add-on to the gains on most occasions in the last three months shows history. This is the eighth occasion, where the index is seen holding gains in 9MCY. In the previous seven such instances, the Smallcap index extended gains on five counts. Disclaimer: View and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers’ discretion is advised.
