By Hallie Gu, Pratik Parija and Arun Devnath
Bangladesh has resumed wheat purchases from its western neighbor, after India’s plentiful supply encouraged it to lift an export ban at a time when Black Sea trade disruptions have sent global prices soaring.
Importers have booked more than 200,000 tonnes of Indian wheat after the restrictions were revoked in late August, according to people familiar with the matter — the first significant wheat sales since 2022.
Pressure has been particularly acute for Bangladesh, which needs to import more than 7 million tonnes of wheat annually. Before exports were banned in May 2022, India accounted for nearly 70 per cent of the country’s purchases, thanks to short transit times and low freight costs. Bangladesh subsequently turned to supplies from Argentina, Canada, Russia and Ukraine, with 40 per cent of imports coming from the Black Sea region.
“Unless the Russia-Ukraine crisis is resolved, supply remains critical,” said Taslim Shahriar, senior deputy general manager at Meghna Group of Industries, a major Bangladeshi wheat importer and flour miller. Buyers in the South Asian nation are paying more than $450 a ton for Australian wheat that previously cost less than $380, he added.
Most Indian supplies to Bangladesh will move by rail, with delivered prices ranging from $305 to $326 a tonne, the people said, asking not to be named because the information is private.
Sri Lankan importers also bought about 60,000 tonnes of wheat from India recently at around $325 a ton before shipping, according to the people.
“There will probably be a market for Indian wheat in neighboring countries,” said Abhinav Vijay, a director at Agrocorp International Pte Ltd.
Indian wheat exports are forecast to more than quadruple to 2 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report. Ample supplies, the relaxation of export curbs and disruptions in the Black Sea are making the country’s wheat internationally competitive for the first time in five years.
Exports to Bangladesh and Nepal have already increased, while the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia could also see more shipments, the FAS said, adding that “increased availability is critical for nearby import-dependent markets.”
Refined wheat flour prices in Dhaka have jumped 17 per cent over the past month, according to the state-run Trading Corporation of Bangladesh. Wheat is the country’s second-most consumed cereal, and higher prices add to inflation risk at a time consumer-price growth remains elevated.
The bigger risk for Bangladesh is affordability, rather than availability, said Vladimir Zinkovski, head of APAC crops research at S&P Global Energy, adding elevated prices may increase rice consumption. “India has the potential to become a meaningful additional source of regional wheat supply.”
Chicago wheat futures surged to the highest in more than three years last month before paring some of the gains. Higher global prices have made the otherwise uncompetitive Indian wheat, more attractive to buyers nearby.
